By Vera Rodriguez,
The entire college of Commissioners visited India on February 27th and 28th. This is unprecedented by EU diplomatic standards, as the Commission rarely travels together. If it has done so, it has been to the other member states two times before to celebrate the start of an EU presidency. However, the entire Commission has never traveled to a third country outside the EU; the first one will be India. This act means much more than a simple visit.
The European Parliament’s briefing on this deployment underscores three topics: security, trade, and uncertainty in transatlantic relations. Furthermore, outside of the programmed encounter, the EU is signing numerous agreements with the country. This article will cover these points and unveil the meaning of this diplomatic maneuver in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape.
With over 80% of the world’s trade passing through its shores, India remains an essential trading point. In its recent briefing on the country, the European Union has cited India’s “strategic geographical position at the heart of the Indo-Pacific”. Initiatives with the Asian state have flourished over the last years, witnessing increased investment, trade in goods, and negotiations for a trade agreement. Some of these figures partially result from Brexit, as the United Kingdom (UK) was a link between India and the EU. While Brexit is a factor to be considered, these figures trace a broader geopolitical trend beyond it. According to economic forecasts, by 2030, India is expected to become the world’s third-largest economy. Therefore, it is unsurprising that the EU wants to establish closer relationships with an emerging power.
Brussels is currently at a crossroads, both externally and domestically. The areas announced for a possible partnership with India unveil the Union’s insecurities. First, after the COVID-19 pandemic and the tense atmosphere amidst a US-China rivalry, the EU decided to “de-risk” its products and supply chains from Beijing. Therefore, it started engaging in dialogues with other regional states to maintain multilateralism while securing the materials on which its vital industries depend. For instance, reports hint at technological cooperation, connectivity, and overall trade. With a declared commitment to the rule-based order and situated at a crucial enclave in Asia, India is seen as a like-minded, powerful friend.
Second, Brussels is increasingly insecure about its role in the world. The Draghi report, authored by the former ECB president, is a testament to this idea, calling for a more competitive economy. The document outlines key industrial reforms that need to happen in the Union. Although not everyone agrees with the proposed remedies, the diagnosis remains uncontested. From the AI “race” to a more serious focus on defense, the EU needs to increase its economic competitiveness globally. Doing so requires cooperation with other powers that are looking for similar goals.
Finally, Brussels seems to be losing an ally. The Munich Security Conference from February 14th to 16th highlighted the divide between the EU and the US. At the event, Vice President Vance attacked the Union’s democracy and freedom of speech, and there were few cooperation discussions. Since then, Trump’s administration has made public statements aimed at provoking Ukraine and the European Union. These remarks hardly come as a surprise, yet the Union was unprepared for such a rapid deterioration of its transatlantic relations. Reliant on US military capabilities, Brussels must now watch out for its dependencies in NATO and other crucial areas. While the EU wants to maintain a multilateral liberal order, the US might no longer.
These three main factors are currently shaping the EU’s strategies. In this context, India could serve as the ideal partner for the EU to bolster its regional de-risking efforts and secure additional resources related to competitiveness and security, including trade and connectivity, technology, and maritime cooperation.
Even though there are possibilities for cooperation, there are some challenges. To begin with, India is not a liberal democracy, and although progress is being made, deterioration of human rights and the rule of law remain a challenge. Various associations, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, have raised concerns about fundamental rights. These include the repression of civil society and activists, the presence of laws that target religious minorities, the usage of spyware to target political opponents or the weakening of independent institutions. Increasing trade with a regime that does not comply with fundamental rights, without a public dialogue on the matter, could worsen democratic standards in India.
Moreover, India and the EU have partly conflicting geopolitical strategies: while the EU seeks to balance China and feels threatened by Russia, New Delhi feels threatened by China but would like to balance Russia. As a broad plan, the Asian power wants to place itself in the middle of the power balance between the US and its allies, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other. For now, the Union wants to take a similar stance but with a clear values component in an ever-deteriorating transatlantic relationship. Yet, the rise of the far-right in Europe could change these preferences in the medium term, as these parties share ideological preferences with Trump.
Finally, clashes regarding sustainability may still need to be resolved. India has expressed that EU legislation is unfair and detrimental to domestic growth. The country has a high rate of deforestation for the plantation of coffee and rubber, specifically exports that may be affected by the EU’s regulation.
India’s global presence is expanding, and the visit of the whole College of Commissioners is a testament to this. Although the intentions are to trade heavily and cooperate deeply, both partners must learn how to deal with many challenges regarding human rights, regime differences, geopolitical preferences, and climate-friendlier trade.
References
- EU-India relations: Time for a new boost? The European Parliament. Available here
- India 2023. Amnesty International. Available here
- Joint Letter to EU Commission ahead of India Visit. HRW. Available here
- The Draghi report on EU competitiveness. The European Commission. Available here
- Westlessness Reloaded? msc. Available here
- EU aims high ahead of mission to India in late February. POLITICO. Available here
